Since 1990, east asia has undertaken major economic reforms in response to financial crises and other factors. Econometric estimates of a growth accounting model. Demographic change can influence the underlying growth rate of the economy, structural productivity growth, living standards, savings rates, consumption, and investment. This paper examines the links between demographic change and economic growth in asia during 196590. Emerging demographic trends in asia and the pacific. The most important lesson from this book is that the right policies can help countries to reap the benefits of demographic change on the overall development of a nation. This book argues that previous studies have neglected the fundamental ways in which demographic forces have influenced economic growth and regional economic integration. Finlay harvard school of public health september 2008 draft. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in east asia.
Chapter 6 analyzes how policies can leverage demographic change in support of the development goals. The demographic dividend refers to the process through which a changing age structure can spur economic growth. Demographic changes, migration and economic growth in the euro area axel borschsupan abc, duarte nuno leite ad and johannes rausch a 1. The industrial revolution that brought unprecedented economic growth to western europe and north america also coincided with a new epoch in population dynamics galor, 2005. Pdf trade openness, high savings rates, human capital accumulation, and. This demographic inertia is exploited in demographic projections to yield forecasts that are substantially more reliable than any projection of economic. Demographic changes and economic growth digital commons. Please do not cite without permission from the authors abstract in 1994 the world bank called east asia. We attempt to identify the impact of demographic changes on inflation and the macroeconomy by using two kinds of proxies to capture demographic changes. Countries in asia which have industrialized are often described as flying geese, taking off around the region like the birds in waves. The drop from high to low fertility came with remarkable speed. Economic growth depends on productivity gains and changes to the number of people in the workforce. Demographic change and economic growth in asia, cid working papers 15a, center for international development at harvard university.
They argue that it is possible that the interaction of economic growth with population dynamics can result in a poverty trap. Demographic change and economic growth in asia david e. In this new stage, a country faces a growing number of elderly retirees. As for the composition of population, multiple measures have been proposed to reflect the degree of population aging. Changes in the total size of population are captured by its growth rate. Mellon center for curricular and faculty development, the office of the provost and the office of the president. Demographic change and economic growth in asia, asian. There are several reasons why the southeast asia seemed to be an interesting sample to investigate the relationship between demographic factors and. Bloom and canning 2001 are among the few who explore the effect of the demographic. Still, the absolute and relative size of the population will remain. Demographic dividend, as defined by the united nations population fund unfpa means, the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a populations age structure, mainly when the share of. As the growth rate of the workingage population lags that of the total population, the total dependency ratio rises.
Thus, the impact of demographic change will be felt differently 11 average aggregate gdp annualized growth, 201530 percentage points source. Still, the absolute and relative size of the population will remain high. The economic consequences of demographic change in east asia. This paper examines the links between demographic change and economic growth in asia. By 2030, the region will represent around 55 percent of the total global population in the 15. Oecd in calculating ppps, is a multilateral extension of the substitution biasfree fischer.
In this study, we have selected brazil, russia, india, china. South asia and some parts of southeast asia show rapid population growth while east asia is experiencing a noticeable decline. Although demographic variables depend on economic development, they are still to a large extent predetermined. It examines policy opportunities at both the country and the global level. Given the lack of population records prior to the 1950s, there are many gaps in our record of demographic history. Subsequently, demographic change was shown to be a missing factor in explaining the east asian growth premium. The economic consequences of demographic change in east asia national bureau of economic research east asia seminar on economics book 19 kindle edition by ito, takatoshi, rose, andrew. This book empirically analyzes economic growth and transitions in industrial structure in east asia.
As the growth rate of the workingage population lags that of the total population, the total dependency ratio. The purpose of the thesis is to examine how demographic transition affects economic growth with the japanese economy as an extreme example. In this paper, we will interpret chinas economic growth miracle from the viewpoint of demographic change. Jun 01, 2009 demographic change and economic growth in asia demographic change and economic growth in asia bloom, david e finlay, jocelyn e. It depends, of course, on several complex factors, including the nature and pace of demographic change, the operation of labor and capital markets, macroeconomic management and trade policies, governance, and human capital. Abstract trade openness, high savings rates, human capital accumulation, and macroeconomic policy only accounted for part of the.
Demographic, employment, and wage trends in south africa. It started in japan, with its average growth of 10%. Demographic change and economic growth in asia demographic change and economic growth in asia bloom, david e finlay, jocelyn e. First, as reported of united nations 2015 its labor force is in the third place of the world in size, just behind china and. Aging, economic growth, and oldage security in asia edited by donghyun park. Click download or read online button to demographic change andeconomic growth book pdf for free now. Demographic change, productivity, and the role of technology. We show that the overall rate of population growth had little effect on economic growth, but that changes in life expectancy, age structure, and population density have had a significant impact on growth rates. In this study, we have selected brazil, russia, india, china and south africa brics and the european union to see this relationship between two variables economic growth and demographic dividend using fixed effect. Economists have often neglected the impact of fundamental demographic processes on economic growth. This article is brought to you for free and open access by the ames library, the. Oct 27, 2009 the recent period of very rapid demographic change in most countries around the world is characteristic of the central phases of a secular process called the demographic transition. Over the course of this transition, declines in birth rates followed by declines in death rates bring about an era of rapid population growth.
Authors personal copy demographic change and economic growth in sweden. Population economics course description the course will examine the economic determinants of population change and demographic behavior including household formation, marriage, child bearing and rearing, mortality and especially infant mortality and key forms of human capital investment including schooling and migration. Special attention is paid to population health and age structure as missing factors in a unified explanation of such disparate phenomena as east asia. Economic growth and the demographic transition david e. Because east asian economic growth was so high, however, demographic variables had a much larger effect on aggregate.
Impact of demographic changes on inflation and the macroeconomy. Of all the countries with high fertility in 1960, in only six were women. In this paper, we reexamine the role of the demographic transition in explaining crosscountry differences in economic growth, with a particular focus on east asia. Demographic transition and economic growth in china, india.
The relationship between demographic change and economic. We reexamine the role of the demographic transition in contributing to cross. Demographic change and economic growth in asia bloom. The calculations presented in table 4 assume that the rate of economic growth for each region was equal to the global average. Demographic dividend, as defined by the united nations population fund unfpa means, the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a populations age structure, mainly when the share of the workingage population 15 to 64 is larger than the nonworkingage share of the population 14 and younger, and 65 and older. These results imply that future demographic change will tend to depress growth rates in east asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growth in southeast and south asia. There are several reasons why the southeast asia seemed to be an interesting sample to investigate the relationship between demographic factors and economic growth in this study. The effects of the demographic transition on economic growth. In this background, this article attempts to study how economic growth of any country gets influenced by its demographic dividend.
Consequently, the significance of east asia s remarkable decline in childbearing, the diminished rates of population growth, and the accompanying changes in age structure are. The recent period of very rapid demographic change in most countries around the world is characteristic of the central phases of a secular process called the demographic transition. Download pdf demographicchangeandeconomicgrowth free. Infant and child mortality rates dropped to low levels and life expectancy at birth approached and, in japan, surpassed levels found in.
Demographic history is the reconstructed record of human population in the past. Demographic change in east asia was as dramatic as economic change. Emerging asia should learn from japans demographic. Impact of demographic changes on inflation and the. In 1970s, china began to implement the family plan policy, namely onechild policy, then its fertility rate decreased substantially to about 2. However, the nature of the impact of demographic change is not set in stone. The economic consequences of demographic change in east asia assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as comparative demographic change, population aging, the rising cost of health care, and specific policy concerns in individual countries. Demographic change and economic growth in asia harvard. Cid working papers from center for international development at harvard university. It documents progress made in trade and global value chains, crossborder investment, financial integration, the movement of people, and subregional cooperation. Population change and economic development in east asia.
Special attention is paid to population health and age structure as missing factors in a unified explanation of such disparate phenomena as east asia s economic miracle and subsaharan africas economic debacle. We show that the overall rate of population growth had little effect on economic growth, but that. The miracle occurred in part because east asias demographic transition. Population economics course description the course will examine the economic determinants of population change and demographic behavior including household formation, marriage, child bearing. Pdf demographic change and economic growth in asia. Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging asia.
Bloom and canning, w10817 global demographic change. Demographic change may be a factor in this decline to the extent that it results in a lower long. The industrial revolution that brought unprecedented economic growth to western europe and north america also coincided with a new epoch in population dynamics galor. Demographic change and economic growth in south asia. After negative and slow growth in the late 1980s and early 1990s, south africas triumphant transition to a democratic and more inclusive society in 1994 saw the economy once. It depends, of course, on several complex factors, including the nature and pace of. Bloom and canning 2001 are among the few who explore the effect of the demographic transition on economic growth. Demographic changes in asia and japans economic and. Infant and child mortality rates dropped to low levels and life expectancy at birth approached and, in japan, surpassed levels found in the west. Please do not cite without permission from the authors abstract in 1994 the world bank called east asia s strong economic growth performance a miracle.
One volume examines the development impact of demographic change mason. Bloom, david canning and jaypee sevilla nber working paper no. The bidirectional causality in south east asia abstract this study has demonstrated new evidence sustaining the idea that variation in demographic factors is an important determinant of growth in per capita income. The deducted result of the theoretical model shows that the share of working. Population dynamics in india and implications for economic growth. Demographic, employment, and wage trends in south africa haroon bhorat. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in east asia as well as more specific. The economic consequences of demographic change in east.
We argue that the extent of the demographic changes. Demographics and their implications for the economy and policy. Asia, economic growth, demographic changes, population, pooled. This paper describes how population aging will shape long run economic development in the euro zone. Pdf demographic change and economic growth in south asia. Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging. Demographic changes, migration and economic growth in the. The results of the study are reported in two volumes. During this period, the decline in the workingage population is likely to directly depress the economic growth rate.
Human population growth and the demographic transition. The most marked change is that of the mining sector. The paper tests the impact of demographic change on chinas economic growth by using 19832008 provincial panel data. In 1960s, chinas total fertility rate peaked at about 6. Economic growth and transition of industrial structure in. Population aging and economic growth in asia david e. The economic consequences of demographic change in east asia assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as.
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